UP OR DOWN THE GRID?
It’s winter time and the teams are busy in their factory designing and building new cars for the 2016 season. With the first test starting at the end of February, the big question is: Who moved up the grid and who moved down? Based on the 2015 results and progression made, I would like to take a shot at the new 2016 order of the gid. Taking in account engine switches, new teams and drivers.
1) Petronas Mercedes AMG (-)
After the last two years, we can expect this team to be on the front again. With little technical rule changes, the combination of being manufacturer of the engine and the package of gearbox etc. we can expect them at the front again.
2) Scuderia Ferrari (-)
The progress that was made by Ferrari in the last races, looked very promising. And taking in mind the big step they made in the beginning of 2015 with their new engine, we can expect another big improvement for this year. Vettel is quick and on a roll, so we can expect him at the front rows. It would be great to see Ferrari battling for the front row this year.
3) Red Bull Racing (+1 UP)
Renault engines, labeled as Tag Heuer, and developed by Mario Illien. That could become a success, but it will take some time. So I expect them in the top 3 by the second half of the year. And I do expect some engine faillures in the first half because of the improvements on performance.
4) Williams Racing (-1 DOWN)
They have Mercedes powered engines and the car was rather good in 2015, and they have a fast first driver in Bottas. I expect them to be less dominant, simply because Ferrari and Red Bull will have improved over winter. And because Williams is not a manufacturing team so they will not get the best engine management or upgrades first.
5) Scuderia Toro Rosso (+ 2 UP)
Their 2015 car was great, except for the Renault engine. With the new Ferrari engine, and assuming they keep the best parts of the car and even improve, they could become a real top 10 player. With the impressive 2015 rookies, who really made a big impression, they should be able to fight for points every race.
6) McLaren Honda (+3 UP)
Let’s hope Honda makes the right decisions, and is spending enough time and money on their engine development program. Because no one want’s to see Alonso and Button struggling at the back of the grid in a McLaren. The cars aero was OK, but the lack of power simply couldn’t be compensated.
7) Sahara Force India (- 2 DOWN)
During 2015 is became clear the Force India is struggling with the finances. This will have impact on the investment they could make for this year’s car. Although the Mercedes engine will help, the aero package will not make the big difference.
8) Renault F1 Team (- 2 DOWN)
The switch from the poor Lotus team to becoming a manufacturing team will result in improvements, but it will take time. And the Renault engine wasn’t the best part of the car last year and it will replace the more powerful Mercedes engine. So I expect this team to consider 2016 as a year of change and improvements.
9) Haas Racing (New)
This new US team haven’t driven one mile so far, so what can we expect? They have a Ferrari engine, they have a rather good and experienced driver with Grosjean and they bring a lot of racing experience with the Haas backing to the grid. So I would guess 9th.
10) Sauber F1 Team (-2 DOWN)
In short; “a struggling team”. They already have announced that their new car will not be a revolution, rather an evolution. Add the lack of money to invest and develop the car during the season, pay-drivers and you end up on the 10th spot.
11)Manor F1 (-)
Last year’s performance was poor, 4 to 5 seconds slower than the fastest cars. In terms of Formula 1 that’s a gap of light years. Although they will have Mercedes engines, the biggest challenge will be the car design itself. Add up the lack of money, the change in management and the search for any major sponsor… and you end up last on the grid. And with the new Haas team joining, this could also mean the end of Manor after 2016. They were on the 2015 grid because they would get the prize money of 2014 and would be certain of the 10th position in 2015. But we can’t expect that to happen in 2016…
2015 Team Championship
1 MERCEDES 703
2 FERRARI 428
3 WILLIAMS 257
4 RED BULL RACING 187
5 FORCE INDIA 136
6 LOTUS 78
7 TORO ROSSO 67
8 SAUBER 36
9 MCLAREN 27
10 MARUSSIA 0
1) Petronas Mercedes AMG (-)
After the last two years, we can expect this team to be on the front again. With little technical rule changes, the combination of being manufacturer of the engine and the package of gearbox etc. we can expect them at the front again.
2) Scuderia Ferrari (-)
The progress that was made by Ferrari in the last races, looked very promising. And taking in mind the big step they made in the beginning of 2015 with their new engine, we can expect another big improvement for this year. Vettel is quick and on a roll, so we can expect him at the front rows. It would be great to see Ferrari battling for the front row this year.
3) Red Bull Racing (+1 UP)
Renault engines, labeled as Tag Heuer, and developed by Mario Illien. That could become a success, but it will take some time. So I expect them in the top 3 by the second half of the year. And I do expect some engine faillures in the first half because of the improvements on performance.
4) Williams Racing (-1 DOWN)
They have Mercedes powered engines and the car was rather good in 2015, and they have a fast first driver in Bottas. I expect them to be less dominant, simply because Ferrari and Red Bull will have improved over winter. And because Williams is not a manufacturing team so they will not get the best engine management or upgrades first.
5) Scuderia Toro Rosso (+ 2 UP)
Their 2015 car was great, except for the Renault engine. With the new Ferrari engine, and assuming they keep the best parts of the car and even improve, they could become a real top 10 player. With the impressive 2015 rookies, who really made a big impression, they should be able to fight for points every race.
6) McLaren Honda (+3 UP)
Let’s hope Honda makes the right decisions, and is spending enough time and money on their engine development program. Because no one want’s to see Alonso and Button struggling at the back of the grid in a McLaren. The cars aero was OK, but the lack of power simply couldn’t be compensated.
7) Sahara Force India (- 2 DOWN)
During 2015 is became clear the Force India is struggling with the finances. This will have impact on the investment they could make for this year’s car. Although the Mercedes engine will help, the aero package will not make the big difference.
8) Renault F1 Team (- 2 DOWN)
The switch from the poor Lotus team to becoming a manufacturing team will result in improvements, but it will take time. And the Renault engine wasn’t the best part of the car last year and it will replace the more powerful Mercedes engine. So I expect this team to consider 2016 as a year of change and improvements.
9) Haas Racing (New)
This new US team haven’t driven one mile so far, so what can we expect? They have a Ferrari engine, they have a rather good and experienced driver with Grosjean and they bring a lot of racing experience with the Haas backing to the grid. So I would guess 9th.
10) Sauber F1 Team (-2 DOWN)
In short; “a struggling team”. They already have announced that their new car will not be a revolution, rather an evolution. Add the lack of money to invest and develop the car during the season, pay-drivers and you end up on the 10th spot.
11)Manor F1 (-)
Last year’s performance was poor, 4 to 5 seconds slower than the fastest cars. In terms of Formula 1 that’s a gap of light years. Although they will have Mercedes engines, the biggest challenge will be the car design itself. Add up the lack of money, the change in management and the search for any major sponsor… and you end up last on the grid. And with the new Haas team joining, this could also mean the end of Manor after 2016. They were on the 2015 grid because they would get the prize money of 2014 and would be certain of the 10th position in 2015. But we can’t expect that to happen in 2016…
2015 Team Championship
1 MERCEDES 703
2 FERRARI 428
3 WILLIAMS 257
4 RED BULL RACING 187
5 FORCE INDIA 136
6 LOTUS 78
7 TORO ROSSO 67
8 SAUBER 36
9 MCLAREN 27
10 MARUSSIA 0